mathhammer arguments always make me roll my eyes. Do people really have nothing better to do with their time than argue about the pros and cons of figuring out statistical odds of killing plastic toy soldiers??

Honestly, I don't see much difference between your method and their method. even your arguments about -intuitively- knowing that your missiles should hurt a rhino is somewhat based on an inherent knowledge of statistics. you don't calculate it all out, but you have a rough understanding in the back of your mind that you are "likely" to kill the rhino. some people just like to be more exact than others.

on the flip side of things, people talking all about how likely it is that unit A will totally kill unit B using statistics ("my marines wil kill 4.56675 orks this turn! then they'll kill another 3.2231 orks next turn!") is really no different than littlewill going on and on about how memphiston is totally going to kill those guys over there. it's gonna be awesome, he's gonna ruin their day.

I really don't know why there's any argument. I think we can all take a step back and agree that we all spend too much time thinking about our mini games. stats or no stats, when you're playing a real game and something is on the line, you're going to just say "**** it, I need that objective. my guys are gonna assault your guys."