I guess the point that Wave serpent spam isn't good so why do people play it? It can be beat pretty easy and even Nids can smoke it fast.
As for Bolters, I don't think its too much off. It is still a weapon. If you have cover you get a 5+ save. If you don't you get a 6+ save. If scatter laser hits you , you still get a 5+ cover save.
Binomial Distribution
Mean Kill Bolter, Serpent shield, Scatter laser
0 2.978% 2.145% 6.564%
1 12.538% 13.841% 25.617%
2 23.757% 33.487% 37.489%
3 26.674% 36.007% 24.383%
4 19.655% 14.519% 5.947%
5 9.931% 0.000% 0.000%
6 3.484% 0.000% 0.000%
7 0.838% 0.000% 0.000%
Bolter Serpent Scatter laser
# Shots 10 4 4
BS of Attacker 4 4 4
S of Weapon 4 7 6
Twin-linked? No Yes Yes
Re-Roll Failed Wounds? No No No
T of Target 3 3 3
To Hit Roll 3 3 3
To Damage Roll 3 2 2
Rending? No No No
Target's Save (7=No Save) 5 6 5
Feel No Pain? No No No
Fortune No No No
Misfortune No No No
Probability of hit 66.7% 66.7% 66.7%
+ Twin-linked bonus 0.0% 22.2% 22.2%
Probability of wound 66.7% 83.3% 83.3%
+ Re-roll wounds bonus 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Probability of a Rend 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Probability failed save 66.7% 83.3% 66.7%
Probability of Single Success 29.6% 61.7% 49.4%
Mean Number of Kills (μ) 2.96 2.47 1.98
Standard Deviation (σ) 1.44 0.97 1.00
I bet you at the same basic level this is what GW looked at when justifying point cost for the Serpent. You get saves and your guys will make it alive.
I think the biggest thing people have problems with is they think they get no save and that is the perception when that isn't the truth. Do people forget that it is AP - ? I mean that sounds like the perception that you guys all talk about. That we just die, we don't get saves and makes me think people are just not playing it right...